Inflation pinching hard as usual

The Indian inflation rate for October printed at 9.7% (year on year), about the same as the previous month. The worry is that the month/month inflation rate is again up sharply at around 9.3% annualized rate, significantly above the 5-6% or so rate it has been running at for this financial year.

A part of this unexpected rise is probably explained by the severe depreciation of the Rupee in recent months. In addition there are some individual commodities that seem to have had a large impact (tomatoes which form 0.3% of the index was up 100%, adding 30 bps to the overall inflation rate).

Overall if inflation remains at or below this m/m run rate, we should see inflation drop below 8% on a year-on-year basis by December which should allow the Reserve Bank to ease liquidity and start cutting rates the April-June quarter.

See a chart here.

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